原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译:amaki 转载请注明出处
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-486660-1-1.html



Long before Tim Cook became Apple’s boss, when his job was to wring costs out of the company’s supply chain, he learned of a problem with a supplier in China. “This is really bad,” he told his staff. “Someone should be in China driving this.” Thirty minutes later he saw one of his executives sitting at a table. “Why are you still here?” he asked quietly. The executive stood up, drove directly to San Francisco’s airport and bought a ticket to China.

在成为苹果公司的老板良久之前,当蒂姆库克的工作仍是为了在公司的供给链中挤出成本时,他体味到了一个中国供给商的问题问题。“这很糟糕,”他告诉他的员工。“得有小我在中国措置这事。”三十分钟后他看到他的一个司理正坐在桌旁。“为什么你还在这儿?”他轻轻地问。司理站起身来,径直驱车前往旧金山的机场并买了飞往中国的机票。



Mr Cook’s bet on China extended beyond its factories to its consumers. Sales to the region have risen from next-to-nothing in 2010 to $52bn last year, or almost a fifth of Apple’s revenues. Since Donald Trump’s election in 2016, “Tim Apple” (as America’s president once called him) has jetted to Washington and Beijing to try to ease rising trade tensions between the two superpowers. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, says Mr Cook “knows how to navigate the political mind”.

不仅在工场上面库克把宝押在中国,还有苹果公司的顾客。对中国地域的发卖从2010年的几乎为零,增添到去年的520亿美元,几乎是苹果总收入的五分之一。自从2016年特朗普被选以来,“蒂姆•苹果”(因为美国总统曾这么称号他)已经乘飞机去往华盛顿和北京以试图缓解两个强权之间日益升温的商业严重排场境界。贺拉斯•德度,一个科技剖析师,评价库克“体味若何指导政治年夜脑”。

Given his reputation as a logistical mastermind, it is worth asking why he has ignored the first rule of supply-chain management: the risk of keeping too many important eggs in one basket. In Mr Cook’s case, that basket is China. The trade bust-up is getting uglier. If it leads to an anti-American backlash in China, it could spell trouble for Apple—and for Mr Cook personally.

考虑到他拥有一个很是具有逻辑性的筹谋巨匠的声誉,值得询问忽略了供给链治理的第一轨则:将良多鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的风险。在库克的例子里,阿谁篮子就是中国。商业的激烈争执正变得加倍丑恶。假如这场政治争执导致了中国偏移向了反美,那么其可能会对苹果、以及库克自己招致麻烦。

Mr Cook’s lobbying has helped Apple avoid direct hits from Mr Trump’s tariffs, already imposed on $250bn-worth of Chinese imports. But its shares have fallen by almost 12% in the past month. On June 1st, after The Economist went to press, China was expected to retaliate with tariffs on $60bn of American goods, including components for Apple devices. Mr Trump has threatened a levy of 25% on $300bn more of imports if trade talks do not produce a breakthrough. This would cover the iPhone, by far Apple’s biggest source of revenue. Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates that it could add $160 to the cost of a $999 iPhone xs. Apple could absorb the cost or pass it on to buyers. Either way, profits would suffer.

库克的游说已经辅佐苹果避免了招致特朗普关税的直接冲击,特朗普的关税已经施加在价值2500亿美元的来自中国的进口货色上了。可是曩昔一个月其份额已经降了几乎12%。六月一日,在经济学人杂志排印之后,中国被猜测会采纳报复,将对600亿美元的美国产物施加关税,搜罗苹果设备的部件。假如商业构和没有发生打破,特朗普威胁会对300亿或是更多的进口品施加25%的税。这一法子将会笼盖苹果手机,其也是今朝为止苹果最年夜的利润来历。摩根士丹利银行预估这将会给价值999美元的苹果手机XS增添160美元的成本。苹果可以领受这部门成本或者将其转嫁给消费者。不管若何,利润城市受损。

A more immediate threat may be a Chinese reprisal for the Trump administration’s decision in May, on national-security grounds, to stop American companies from supplying Huawei, China’s tech champion (and the biggest seller of smartphones in China), with chips, software and other technology. A Chinese consumer boycott of Apple products could accelerate their shift towards other, cheaper brands. Because of the trade tensions, Citi, a bank, has halved its forecast for iPhone sales in China in the second half of this year, from almost 14.5m to 7.2m units.

一个更即可的威胁可能会是中国对特朗普政府在蒲月的抉择所作出的报复步履,特朗普以国家平安为由,禁止美国公司向华为(中国的科技冠军同时也是中国智妙手机最畅销的厂家)芯片、软件和其他手艺。一场中国消费者对苹果产物的抵制可能会加速他们对其他更廉价品牌的转移。因为商业严重排场境界,花旗银行已经将对苹果手机在中国下半年的发卖预期砍半了,从1450万部降到720万部。



One fix would be for Apple to develop another indispensable product that no self-respecting affluent Chinese consumer could do without. For all his success, Mr Cook has not yet managed this. Another would be to develop services that do not need production in China. Apple’s much-trailed announcement in March of new video-streaming, payments and other services shows it is trying. They may prove a hit, but would be no substitute for the iPhone. Mr Cook must be hoping that he has not miscalculated the risks to the supply chains he has so intricately engineered.

一个解决法子是苹果公司开发此外一个不成或缺的产物,没有一个自尊敷裕的中国消费者会离得开。尽管他取得了良多成功,他还没能做到这一步。另一个法子是开发一些不需要中国产物的处事。苹果在三月关于视频流、支出和其他一些处事的很滞后的书记显示出它正在为此全力。这些处事可能会年夜受接待,但它们不能庖代苹果手机。库克必然但愿他没有错误估量这个他自己复杂地设计出的供给链所面临的风险。